Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
